Satellite Sector on Track to Produce Banner Years

There is a great deal of excitement in the satellite sector, set-up by a series of large satellite orders, launch contracts, financing deals and acquisitions that have taken place during the past 12 months.
    “Significant 2010 events include the take-off of the Latin American market, the successful launch of Ka-Sat, introduction of 3-D, the Galaxy 15 rogue satellite, Deepwater Horizon and the effects of oil and gas on satellite communications, the rise of UAVs, and the return of broadband Ku-band satellite connectivity on commercial passenger airlines,” says Chris Baugh, president of NSR.
    Hoyt Davidson, managing partner, Near Earth LLC, says that one of big talking points of 2010 was “SpaceX successfully completing its second Falcon 9 launch and recovering its Dragon capsule after orbiting the Earth. Sure, the United States did this in the 1960s, but only a few countries have ever accomplished this feat. To us, this event signifies that technology has advanced to the point where many space activities heretofore only achievable on the backs of large nations with big space budgets are now entering the realm of commercial industry and competitive markets. The impact on the launch services industry will of course be first, but the impact on the commercial satellite industry may be substantial in size and scope,” he says.
    Maxime Baudry, a satellite analyst at Idate, points to the development of the satellite broadband market as one of the major events of 2010. “In Europe, we saw the launch of the Ka-Sat and Hylas-1 satellites. We will now see how the subscriber base will grow. We are forecasting around 700,000 subscribers to satellite broadband services in Europe by 2015,” he says. “The announcement of Inmarsat planning to launch Ka-band satellites is also a major change. The operator is clearly willing to benefit from the technical and economic advantages of this frequency band to deserve its traditional customers in the maritime and aeronautical industries.”
    Baudry believes there is a significant opportunity for satellite broadband in Europe. “First of all, there are still 10 million Europeans which don’t have access to broadband. This is particularly the case in countries such as Italy, Germany, Poland or Romania. Secondly, even if people are covered, a majority of them have access to a limited broadband connection of only 1 Mbps or 2 Mbps, preventing them from having access to IPTV. In Germany for instance, 80 percent of the rural population had access to less than 2 Mbps in 2010 according to our findings. In Poland, it was 90 percent of the population that had access to a broadband service less than 2 Mbps,” he says.
    Another growing opportunity for satellite broadband is the in-flight market. In early March, Aircell announced plans to migrate its Gogo in-flight Wi-Fi service on international flights and increase the performance of its domestic services. To do this, Aircell said it would migrate to EV-DO Rev A in 2012 and then to Ka-band wireless backhauls in 2013. “The Ka-band technology will be used within the continental U.S. in 2013 and expand to worldwide coverage in 2015.”
    ViaSat has invested heavily in expanding Ka-band in key international markets with its Yonder mobile broadband service. The network serves business jets, maritime vessels and government and defense customers around the globe. ViaSat CEO Mark Dankberg has highlighted the importance of his company’s breakthrough in the North American in-flight market while its rival Hughes focuses on emerging markets abroad.
    “We feel that in-flight broadband is a very strong market right now, specifically because it follows that macro-trend I mentioned earlier. Again, the key is higher speeds and more bandwidth. This year, you will see the migration from the older L-band solutions move faster than ever to the Ku- and Ka-band solutions we’re providing,” said Dankberg. “The move we made last year in in-flight connectivity was our deal with JetBlue to install Ka-band satellite broadband connectivity on its entire 160-aircraft fleet in 2012 was significant. We’re taking the market way beyond what past services have offered in this market. Bringing in high-capacity Ka-band is what customers and our partners at JetBlue have responded to.”
    Hughes received a Middle Eastern satellite consumer broadband contract with Yahsat, which Raymond James analyst Chris Quilty said was surprising considering that ViaSat won a $46 million contract with Yahsat in 2009 for consumer terminals. “Satellite broadband is a fiercely competitive market right now for North American players. The impact of Hughes’ acquisition by EchoStar on ViaSat still has to be determined now that there is an increased possibility that Dish Network might choose to align itself with Hughes. If so, ViaSat will experience a slower-than-expected ramp in it subscriber count.

Prospects for 2011
EchoStar made the biggest move to date in 2011, announcing in February an agreement to acquire Hughes. Davidson says this was “a great deal” for EchoStar. “Echostar/Dish and Hughes have obvious synergies both operationally and on the marketing side. By being able to offer combined satellite broadband and video, this combination should create stickier customers with a double-play offering. Operationally, both Hughes and Dish have large installer/reseller footprints that reinforce each other where needed and offer an opportunity to eliminate duplication elsewhere,” he says. “As two growing satellite operators, this combination offers the potential for lower operations costs as well as better bargaining position with satellite manufacturers and launch vehicle providers. Finally, I think this represents some realization on Echostar’s part that companies like Hughes, Viasat and Avanti represent a material long-term threat to the traditional FSS operators. The Hughes acquisition could be an attempt to leapfrog the FSS community (which has been a competitive challenge for Echostar) with the next generation of high throughput satellites.”
    Andrea Maleter, technical director, Futron Corp. adds, “EchoStar has a long history of pushing into new areas outside of the Dish DTH activities — from its acquisition of Sling Media, to its FSS resale and services, to proposed S-band mobile video satellite in Asia and the acquisition of MSS companies and spectrum in North America. Looked at in this light, the acquisition of Hughes is another step in the evolution of a broad-based satellite business cutting across traditional lines,” she says.
    Baudry was less effusive about the deal. “We don’t fully understand the logic behind this deal. On the one hand, it will certainly create a major player in the field of satellite communications in general,” he says. “On the other hand, according to us, content is undoubtedly migrating over the Internet, with major players such as Netflix developing very fast and cutting-cord cases spreading, traditional broadcasting using technologies such as satellite, cable or DTT will have some difficulties to satisfy end-users with innovative usages requiring interactivity.”
    Looking at what may drive the satellite sector in the remainder of 2011, Maleter sees the continued convergence between the telecoms and satellite sectors. “What is likely is the continued convergence across the industry through combinations of FSS and MSS spectrum ownership and operations. This appears to be leading to a re-integration of satellite and terrestrial telecom operations, if not of ownership. Remember that most satellite companies were originally owned by telecom companies, and as new hybrid and bundled services emerge, along with the demand for spectrum, those connections are being made again,” she says.
    Baudry expects that there could be some consolidation occurring in emerging markets. “Many major satellite operators are not forecasting much growth in developed markets because they are being challenged by terrestrial networks for video distribution and video contribution, broadband, network backhauling, etc. It is the case of SES in North America for instance. In this sense, they will look at potential targets in high-growth markets to benefit from these long-term opportunities. I would not be surprised to see major deals over these areas, in 2011 or later.”