The WiMax sector’s overall efforts were rebuffed at the 2007 World Radiocommunication Conference, but with some governments around the globe continuing to support WiMax and international mobile telecommunications (IMT) players and use of the spectrum within their borders, the relationship between the terrestrial technology and satellite communications players continues to evolve. In the immediate aftermath of the decision, it appeared that WiMax deployments were going to chug along unimpeded, regardless of the interference they might cause to C-band satellite networks, however, that momentum has lost some its steam. Why have worldwide deployments of WiMax systems slowed? What does the future look like for future WiMax deployments? Are there situations where satellite and WiMax can work together side-by-side as complementary technologies?
Understanding WiMax
WiMax (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access) is a telecommunication technology using RF devices to transmit data. WiMax (IEE 802.16 standard) initially was envisioned as a last-mile solution to deliver broadband solutions but has taken on a broader scope over the last few years. “WiMax is a versatile technology which is very adaptable to the circumstances,” says Terry Norman, principal analyst for the London-based business consultancy Analysys Mason. “It can be used as a backhaul technology in point-to-point situations, or it can deployed as a wireless ISP. It can even be used together with Wi-Fi and GSM to create a hybrid cellular type of service. It has different personalities in different countries. As such, it faces competition from many fronts, including traditional cellular carriers, cable companies offering services on fiber and coax, microwave vendors with point-to-point radios and satellite broadband services.”
WiMax players envisioned a huge market for the services even without the global C-band capability. But the takeoff off the WiMax business has been slow, and in August, Analysys Mason issued a report that cast doubt on the future of the WiMax business in established markets such as North America and Europe. ”The business case for a WiMax network hinges on the customer paying enough money to make a profitable business,” Norman says. “You have a large number of variables, each different in every country. Some of the variables included: the availability of bandwidth, quality of service provided, how many customers there are, their education level, their ability to pay, the local demand, will that demand be different in different parts of the country, and the population density. Government subsidies add another degree of complexity to the equation. For instance, ‘Is the government prepared to pay to ensure rural areas get the same quality of service as urban dwellers?’ As you cans see, there is quite a list of variables in the commercial world we live in. You aren’t simply rolling the dice; you are actually rolling a whole handful of dice. Every one of these variables has to be explored and addressed to build a successful business case.”
The loss of the global C-band frequency hurt WiMax players more than expected, as vendors and service providers do not have a single global frequency the industry can claim as its own. “The lack of a single frequency requires the vendors and service providers to go about things in a piece meal fashion,” Norman says. “Jumping from one available frequency to another is problematic. WiMax deployments are orders of magnitude fewer than UMTS (Universal Mobile Telecommunication Systems) handsets and, therefore, do not have the same economies of scale.”
If the existing challenges are not enough for the WiMax sector to overcome, Norman also points to the looming development of Long Term Evolution (LTE) by the wireless industry. GSM cellular continues to evolve to provide higher data speeds. GPRS Edge networks will evolve into UMTS networks. The next phase after UMTS is LTE, which sometimes is referred to as 4G and offers virtually the identical features that the 802.16M (WiMax Mobile) standard offers, bringing the two wireless networking standards into head-to-head competition. When that happens WiMax vendors and service providers will have to compete with the likes of AT&T, Verizon and other large carriers. “There is significant overlap of the target markets of both WiMax and LTE,” Norman says. “ WiMax has the benefit of being first to market but the wireless carriers bring massive economies of scale. Although both segments say they aren’t going to compete with each other, in reality, they are going to try to sell to the same customer base.”
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