By Nick Mitsis
Not too long ago, small satellites were serving a niche market, often dwarfed by the large global payloads. Today, customers are paying more attention to smaller satellites, many times making them their primary choice.
But don't rule out the large players quite yet. In fact, industry executives are forecasting that the next generation of space-based assets will be made up of a diverse mix of platforms, as different operator requirements will not be met by a single size. The final decision will ultimately come down to the specific service and market the client plans on serving.
With 19 geostationary-orbit commercial telecommunications satellite ordered last year, executives across the satellite manufacturing industry believe a slight resurgence is underway and that 2006 could being a similar amount of satellite manufacturing contracts.
"We see 2005 to be fairly typical as part of a five-year window where we expect the market to be stable and the number of orders to stay flat," says Ted Gavrillis, president of Lockheed Martin Commercial Space Systems. The U.S. manufacturer captured four contracts last year.
"Operator consolidation will exert some downward pressure on the industry. The satellite manufacturing marketplace continues to experience overcapacity, resulting in fierce competitive pressures. The projection for this year remains at about 15 spacecraft industry-wide," he said.
Lockheed's global manufacturing counterparts concur, stating that the commercial telecommunications satellite market has begun to once again stabilize. "We expect that there will be global orders in the range of 12 to 15 commercial telecommunications satellites in 2006, and the market will follow its typical cycle reaching a peak in the 2011-2012 time frame of 20 to 25 satellites," adds Stephen O'Neill, president, Boeing Satellite Systems International Inc. (BSS).
BSS focused on its defense business in 2005, capturing no new commercial orders. However, Mobile Satellite Ventures (MSV) awarded a contract to BSS in early 2006 for three satellites and related ground systems to support MSV's planned commercial mobile satellite service.
The three geo-mobile satellites will be among the largest and most powerful ever built, each supplying 11,000 watts of power. MSV-1 and MSV-2 satellites will cover Canada, the United States, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Mexico and the Caribbean Basin. The third satellite, MSV-SA, will provide service in South America. The satellites are scheduled to launch in 2009 and 2010.
In a telephone press conference, Alexander Good, chairman and CEO of MSV, said the contract is valued between $500 million and $1 billion, depending on the final configuration of the satellites. This is Boeing's largest commercial satellite order since 1997.
"Boeing sees growing opportunities in the broadband, direct-to-home (DTH), mobile services and satellite radio markets. Mobile satellite telephony has already showed regional success from Thuraya and Inmarsat," O'Neill adds.
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